In the end, I think the social web will be multi-protocol. Even though each protocol shares basic communications features, they are all trying to solve different problems.
ActivityPub is growing and lightweight. A lot of new development is going on in the form of Fediverse Enhancement Proposals (FEPs), and there is a push to create an updated specification for ActivityPub. It is a protocol that anyone can implement and run, even on inexpensive hardware.
AT Protocol has major backers, but is expensive to run in a decentralized manner. They are prioritizing experience over decentralization. Friendica supports AT Protocol, and that could be ported to Hubzilla as well, creating at least two Fediverse platforms that support both ActivityPub and AT Protocol natively. Other platforms are talking about supporting both AT Protocol and ActivityPub.
Bridgy Fed already bridges AT Protocol, ActivityPub, and websites that wish to connect to both of these networks.
Zot Protocol (Nomad version 6) will continue to be used by Hubzilla. There is no incentive to switch to ActivityPub for Hubzilla-to-Hubzilla communications since ActivityPub has less functionality than Zot and converting would be a lot of work with little benefit. Nomad protocol is up in the air since Mike is working on porting the Nomad functionality over to ActivityPub, but I hope that Hubzilla and (streams) can be made 100% compatible so that we don't have to differentiate between Zot 6 and Nomad 12 anymore.
Diaspora isn't growing, but may be expanded by Hubzilla and Friendica, which are multi-protocol platforms.
And that does not include Nostr, Secure Scuttlebutt (SSB), and other protocols that have their use cases and adherents. For example, SSB can be used offline, which is unique and useful in certain applications. Nostr can be integrated with cryptocurrency, allowing user-to-user payments.
Since they all solve different problems and have different audiences, it will be hard to get everyone adopt one protocol to rule them all.
And that is probably the best outcome. Different protocols can try out different things, and the great ideas spread across protocols. For example, a lot of the functionality in Zot and Nomad are being proposed as additions to ActivityPub. Ideas such as Decentralized Identifiers (DIDs) are making their way into multiple protocols. We can all learn from each other, instead of creating one monolith protocol that tells everyone how they must operate.
I think that eventually each of these protocols will bridge basic functionality between each other. Or third parties will do it for them, as is the case with Bridgy Fed, Friendica, and to a lesser extent Hubzilla. And platforms that support multiple protocols will have an advantage over platforms that do not.
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